shreekhand
07-04 10:28 PM
A nicely presented opinion by Ramba, but there are obvious flaws in the anaylsis. Here are my observations
1.) The contention that they followed the recommendations of the Omb report and went back to pre-1982 method cannot be true. They cannot follow that without violating 8 USC Section 1255 (b) which clearly states that a visa number is reduced AFTER the approval of the I-485.
2.)There were 40K visas remaining at the time of the Jun 13 bulletin according to AILA. The 60K number as per DoS might have been from end of May. We most note the fact from the CIS I-485 Standard Operating Procedure that when a petition is "documentarily qualified and approvable" a request is made for a visa number, if such number is not available that petition is put into a approved pending availability of visa number list. This makes it amply clear that the CIS knew the exact number of approvable petitions.(might be ~40-60K) The DoS might also have known that.
3.) So what happened ? Looks like the DoS did not expect the CIS to get those petitions quickly from storage, assign a visa number, stamp and sign petitions with the speed that CIS did it with. As a matter of fact, we can clearly deduce from inquiries made my petitioners in the month of May that soon after the June bulletin was released in May, the petitioners were informed by IO's that their files are now been retrieved and have been assigned to officers for approval in June !
4.) This shows that the CIS swift approval (i.e retrieval, assigning visa #, stamp, signature) activity especially the retrieval part did not start on June 1, or June 13 but well before in mid May if not earlier.
5.) Now maybe they assigned the visa #'s to the approvable petitions (in line with the law) already but they are still going on with the stamp, signature part (as evidenced by people receiving approvals e-mails even on July 2nd and 3rd.. and other forums)
6.) Suspension of PPS at NSC and TSC -- Now why should that happen ?
If they have already used up the EB quota one would ask that much amount of man hours are now free isn't it !!?
But the above points might show us that they might need it to simply finish off the paperwork of the approvable petitions in the month of July. Remember signing off on 40K+ petitions is not a 1 month job, but just assigning visa numbers might be. It is very certain to me that we will see approvals well within July!
Loose ends:
1.) What baffles though is the allocation of all visa numbers before the last quarter of FY 07 ! Maybe there is loophole there that allowed them to do so.
2.) How did visa number for EB1 for a top scientist from say an undersubscribed country such as Ukraine also get used up ??!
1.) The contention that they followed the recommendations of the Omb report and went back to pre-1982 method cannot be true. They cannot follow that without violating 8 USC Section 1255 (b) which clearly states that a visa number is reduced AFTER the approval of the I-485.
2.)There were 40K visas remaining at the time of the Jun 13 bulletin according to AILA. The 60K number as per DoS might have been from end of May. We most note the fact from the CIS I-485 Standard Operating Procedure that when a petition is "documentarily qualified and approvable" a request is made for a visa number, if such number is not available that petition is put into a approved pending availability of visa number list. This makes it amply clear that the CIS knew the exact number of approvable petitions.(might be ~40-60K) The DoS might also have known that.
3.) So what happened ? Looks like the DoS did not expect the CIS to get those petitions quickly from storage, assign a visa number, stamp and sign petitions with the speed that CIS did it with. As a matter of fact, we can clearly deduce from inquiries made my petitioners in the month of May that soon after the June bulletin was released in May, the petitioners were informed by IO's that their files are now been retrieved and have been assigned to officers for approval in June !
4.) This shows that the CIS swift approval (i.e retrieval, assigning visa #, stamp, signature) activity especially the retrieval part did not start on June 1, or June 13 but well before in mid May if not earlier.
5.) Now maybe they assigned the visa #'s to the approvable petitions (in line with the law) already but they are still going on with the stamp, signature part (as evidenced by people receiving approvals e-mails even on July 2nd and 3rd.. and other forums)
6.) Suspension of PPS at NSC and TSC -- Now why should that happen ?
If they have already used up the EB quota one would ask that much amount of man hours are now free isn't it !!?
But the above points might show us that they might need it to simply finish off the paperwork of the approvable petitions in the month of July. Remember signing off on 40K+ petitions is not a 1 month job, but just assigning visa numbers might be. It is very certain to me that we will see approvals well within July!
Loose ends:
1.) What baffles though is the allocation of all visa numbers before the last quarter of FY 07 ! Maybe there is loophole there that allowed them to do so.
2.) How did visa number for EB1 for a top scientist from say an undersubscribed country such as Ukraine also get used up ??!
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Libra
06-13 09:56 AM
not banning sub contracting H1b's but they should impose strict rules for companies that every dick and harry, whoever get GC, starts a company by sitting on the couch in his apt and do sub vendoring......these people are responsible for low pays. I am one of the victim of such companies and hate these kind of people, today they get GC tomorrow they start a desi consulting company.
ItIsNotFunny
10-15 04:42 PM
People who want a copy of their LCA/I-140, please send that in before this. This will create a real large queue and you won't ever get your copy.
Do we all need to do this ?
-M
What are you suggesting? Please speak in lay man's terms.
Do we all need to do this ?
-M
What are you suggesting? Please speak in lay man's terms.
2011 rozne-misc-3-cute-animals-
.jpg "funny quotes about animals.")
ArunAntonio
11-21 08:36 PM
- Is it possible to change your employer and port your PD after the I140 is
approved?
- I know that the Complete process of labour ect.. needs to be restarted but
what if the previous I140/labour is revoked by the previous employer (Can
the previous employer do that ?)
- Can the above be done when the person is on their 8th year H1 extenstion?
approved?
- I know that the Complete process of labour ect.. needs to be restarted but
what if the previous I140/labour is revoked by the previous employer (Can
the previous employer do that ?)
- Can the above be done when the person is on their 8th year H1 extenstion?
more...
ak27
02-20 09:32 AM
I have written to my congressmen couple of times but I am yet to recieve any response. I will contact his office again this week..
Ajay
Ajay
redindian
07-16 07:00 PM
I think we need to counter act and stop this kind of False Propagandas
Core Team Please draft a Letter in accordance to this we will all send Web faxes...
Not every Senator has time to learn the facts they would only believe any statement or propaganda somebody is making. we should strongly object it..
Again it is my personal view..
the fax contents has been like this since last year - so i think they are just pathetic liars/losers who just want to spread false information about us.
i am sure they know that we pay tax/social security - but it doesnt help their case.... no difference between these racists and AlQda madarassas
Core Team Please draft a Letter in accordance to this we will all send Web faxes...
Not every Senator has time to learn the facts they would only believe any statement or propaganda somebody is making. we should strongly object it..
Again it is my personal view..
the fax contents has been like this since last year - so i think they are just pathetic liars/losers who just want to spread false information about us.
i am sure they know that we pay tax/social security - but it doesnt help their case.... no difference between these racists and AlQda madarassas
more...
superdude
07-24 12:20 PM
My lawyer is going to submit the 485 WITHOUT a letter from my current employer. This is going to be a concurrent I-140 and I-485 application (140 and 485 applied together).
I looked at the 485 application form and see that it clearly mentions - page 5, that a letter from the employer is required (mentioning job title, job description and salary). My lawyer still says it is NOT required.
- Are there people who have submitted 485 applications OR who are going to submit the 485 WITHOUT an Employment letter ? Replies/advice greatly appreciated.
Thanks in Advance!
employment letter is not part of initial evidnece per the FAQ issue by USCIS on 07/23/2007. Only signatures and exact fee amounts are part of initial evidence. Sit back and relax now.
http://www.uscis.gov/files/pressrelease/EBFAQ1.pdf
I looked at the 485 application form and see that it clearly mentions - page 5, that a letter from the employer is required (mentioning job title, job description and salary). My lawyer still says it is NOT required.
- Are there people who have submitted 485 applications OR who are going to submit the 485 WITHOUT an Employment letter ? Replies/advice greatly appreciated.
Thanks in Advance!
employment letter is not part of initial evidnece per the FAQ issue by USCIS on 07/23/2007. Only signatures and exact fee amounts are part of initial evidence. Sit back and relax now.
http://www.uscis.gov/files/pressrelease/EBFAQ1.pdf
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nk2006
04-03 05:56 PM
?? A new bill in senate to reform H1B ???
I was just watching LuDobb's show on CNN and saw a clip on a proposed bill (being prepared by Sen.Durbin and another whose name I forgot) to revamp/reform H1B program. From the brief discussion, got the impression that the bill is more concentrated on controlling the h1B program with more checks and rules etc. Obviously Dobbs liked it - not sure if there are any other measures in that bill. Also not sure why another bill if CIR/STRIVE act is in works which is supposed to cover all immigration issues. Anyone else saw any related news elsewhere?
Also saw this article (sorry if its already discussed somewhere):
http://www.infoworld.com/article/07/04/03/HNsenateh1bbill_1.html
I was just watching LuDobb's show on CNN and saw a clip on a proposed bill (being prepared by Sen.Durbin and another whose name I forgot) to revamp/reform H1B program. From the brief discussion, got the impression that the bill is more concentrated on controlling the h1B program with more checks and rules etc. Obviously Dobbs liked it - not sure if there are any other measures in that bill. Also not sure why another bill if CIR/STRIVE act is in works which is supposed to cover all immigration issues. Anyone else saw any related news elsewhere?
Also saw this article (sorry if its already discussed somewhere):
http://www.infoworld.com/article/07/04/03/HNsenateh1bbill_1.html
more...
feedfront
10-13 01:53 PM
Hi,
The response to my RFE reached USCIS on 10/12 at 9 am and I haven't got any online status update as of now - 10/13 1 pm EST. Should I be worried or does it generally take them some time to update their records. Just want to make sure that the RFE reached USCIS since the due date for RFE response is coming up soon.
Thanks.
If you have doc that response to RFE reached USCIS on time, then do not worry about it. It may take time to update record.
The response to my RFE reached USCIS on 10/12 at 9 am and I haven't got any online status update as of now - 10/13 1 pm EST. Should I be worried or does it generally take them some time to update their records. Just want to make sure that the RFE reached USCIS since the due date for RFE response is coming up soon.
Thanks.
If you have doc that response to RFE reached USCIS on time, then do not worry about it. It may take time to update record.
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srikondoji
07-20 03:11 PM
Virald,
What makes you start another stupid thread?
There are gazillion threads that discussed this issue at length. Already people have discussed this and are planning their plan B and for your kind information, Greg didnot say that all July 2 applications will be rejected.
Don't try to scare people and then try to back it up by saying "I am trying to figure that out too"
I don't know, I am trying to figure that out too.
What makes you start another stupid thread?
There are gazillion threads that discussed this issue at length. Already people have discussed this and are planning their plan B and for your kind information, Greg didnot say that all July 2 applications will be rejected.
Don't try to scare people and then try to back it up by saying "I am trying to figure that out too"
I don't know, I am trying to figure that out too.
more...
onemorecame
10-05 12:50 PM
My Attorney is going to reply today, let�s hope for good.
Onemorecame
Onemorecame
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evljeenyiss
07-14 12:15 AM
truthfully, Bluesun I think yours was modelled the best, you just need a better renderer/ lighting.
more...
house Email |
amsgc
07-02 09:36 PM
Regarding your argument on fairness:
On the contrary, under the current system immigrants from all nations do not have an equal opportunity to apply for a green card. Immigrants from the retrogressed countries are at an unfair disadvantage.
It is easy to see: A guy from ROW and a guy from India both are equally qualified engineers who have a EB2 PD of Jan 2008. The guy from ROW can apply to adjust status now, but the guy from India cannot apply until five years from now. That doesn't tell me that both immigrants have an equal opportunity.
Both immigrants would have had an equal opportunity if both could apply for GC at the same time. Once you have entered the country, have been gainfully employed, and your immigrant petition has been approved, how does it matter whether you came from India, china or Timbuktu? Your employer needs you for your skills, not your place of birth. Do you resolve your day to day office problems with your birth certificate pasted to your forehead?
Regarding your argument on diversity:
You need to understand that the country cap (set up 50 years ago) was NOT set up to give all countries an equal shot at sending EB immigrants to the US. The cap was based and an already existing xenophobic tendency (formally expressed way back in 1924) and the desire to retain the cultural and racial character of the US of '65. They would do fine with only handful of you if you didn't eat, drink, talk, walk and look like them.
Now, you need to understand another important point - The world has changed by leaps and bounds in the last fifty years, all made possible by advances in technology and a conscientious effort by governments to educate their people. As a result there are highly skilled people all over the world, who bring their own unique character and experience to the work place. And things have changed dramatically in the US too. Among other things, the US has become more accommodating to people of different cultural identities. Economically, the US is in need of more high skilled people than ever before. This is an irreversible trend, where the US of today is more interested in who you are and what you bring to the table than what you look like. If a few thousand Indians or Chinese are given the green card, based on their SKLLS, it will not alter the racial and cultural character of 300000000 Americans (that's 300 followed by six zeros). Rather it will only make it richer.
Usually politicians work in reactionary mode – they will espouse an idea once it is obvious that they can’t do without it. The fact that discussion to remove country caps in EB has come up in the congress means that the American people have already written it off as an absurd idea.
The law will change, whether you like it or not.
Read here and get yourself some education:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_Act_of_1924
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_and_Nationality_Act_of_1952
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_and_Nationality_Services_Act_of_1965
Regarding the agenda:
The agenda of this organization is pretty darn obvious if you care to go through the home page. The idea is to get as close as possible to a system of immigration that appropriately addresses the needs of the US economy and is fair to both Peter and Paul. A system which gives out a green card in a timely fashion, based on skills, job requirements, and the time when the process was started. We need to advocate a change because the current system says to Paul "screw you" and rewards Peter.
I've said it before and I'll say it again - I don't see how the per country limit is unfair! It was set up so that immigrants from ALL nations would have EQUAL opportunity to immigrate to the U.S. and to prevent any one (or two) countries from monopolizing the visa numbers. Getting rid of the per country limit would most certainly lead to immigration from a limited number of sources (countries) and thus jeopardize the diversity of the immigration process. Getting rid of it would be like robbing Peter to pay Paul because those countries who are severely retrogressed now would only see limited benefits and those who are not all that retrogressed would fall backwards - is that fair!? It seems these forms are dominated by "certain" groups who have their own agenda and don't really care about ROW! It makes me feel uncomfortable being an IV member from ROW!
On the contrary, under the current system immigrants from all nations do not have an equal opportunity to apply for a green card. Immigrants from the retrogressed countries are at an unfair disadvantage.
It is easy to see: A guy from ROW and a guy from India both are equally qualified engineers who have a EB2 PD of Jan 2008. The guy from ROW can apply to adjust status now, but the guy from India cannot apply until five years from now. That doesn't tell me that both immigrants have an equal opportunity.
Both immigrants would have had an equal opportunity if both could apply for GC at the same time. Once you have entered the country, have been gainfully employed, and your immigrant petition has been approved, how does it matter whether you came from India, china or Timbuktu? Your employer needs you for your skills, not your place of birth. Do you resolve your day to day office problems with your birth certificate pasted to your forehead?
Regarding your argument on diversity:
You need to understand that the country cap (set up 50 years ago) was NOT set up to give all countries an equal shot at sending EB immigrants to the US. The cap was based and an already existing xenophobic tendency (formally expressed way back in 1924) and the desire to retain the cultural and racial character of the US of '65. They would do fine with only handful of you if you didn't eat, drink, talk, walk and look like them.
Now, you need to understand another important point - The world has changed by leaps and bounds in the last fifty years, all made possible by advances in technology and a conscientious effort by governments to educate their people. As a result there are highly skilled people all over the world, who bring their own unique character and experience to the work place. And things have changed dramatically in the US too. Among other things, the US has become more accommodating to people of different cultural identities. Economically, the US is in need of more high skilled people than ever before. This is an irreversible trend, where the US of today is more interested in who you are and what you bring to the table than what you look like. If a few thousand Indians or Chinese are given the green card, based on their SKLLS, it will not alter the racial and cultural character of 300000000 Americans (that's 300 followed by six zeros). Rather it will only make it richer.
Usually politicians work in reactionary mode – they will espouse an idea once it is obvious that they can’t do without it. The fact that discussion to remove country caps in EB has come up in the congress means that the American people have already written it off as an absurd idea.
The law will change, whether you like it or not.
Read here and get yourself some education:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_Act_of_1924
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_and_Nationality_Act_of_1952
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_and_Nationality_Services_Act_of_1965
Regarding the agenda:
The agenda of this organization is pretty darn obvious if you care to go through the home page. The idea is to get as close as possible to a system of immigration that appropriately addresses the needs of the US economy and is fair to both Peter and Paul. A system which gives out a green card in a timely fashion, based on skills, job requirements, and the time when the process was started. We need to advocate a change because the current system says to Paul "screw you" and rewards Peter.
I've said it before and I'll say it again - I don't see how the per country limit is unfair! It was set up so that immigrants from ALL nations would have EQUAL opportunity to immigrate to the U.S. and to prevent any one (or two) countries from monopolizing the visa numbers. Getting rid of the per country limit would most certainly lead to immigration from a limited number of sources (countries) and thus jeopardize the diversity of the immigration process. Getting rid of it would be like robbing Peter to pay Paul because those countries who are severely retrogressed now would only see limited benefits and those who are not all that retrogressed would fall backwards - is that fair!? It seems these forms are dominated by "certain" groups who have their own agenda and don't really care about ROW! It makes me feel uncomfortable being an IV member from ROW!
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gcdreamer05
01-09 12:38 PM
Thats a new trend. They go to colleges and meet a group of Indian students who are about to graduate and take them out of drinks and dinner and give a presentation about their company. Then when these students come into OPT status, they are all given food + guest house accomodation. Then they are put under intense training for 2 to 3 months and made to do some mockup projects. Then their resumes are massaged with 4 to 5 years of experience ie experience from date they graduated in the under graduation and their MS education is stripped off on their resumes.
This seems to be a trend, though the practice seems not too good. As most immigrant students are hard working and determined, they put additional hours and make up for experience and perform well at clients. They get a decent 65K to start with from the consulting company and their h1bs are filed well before the cap ends.
Can you please share with me PM some of these companies as I am lookin for a h1b sponsorer for someone i know who has done masters here.... and is fresher... not that he wants to put fake.... he is ready to get a entry level salary and state that he graduated out of school and is a fresher..... just that he wants someone to do his h1b...
This seems to be a trend, though the practice seems not too good. As most immigrant students are hard working and determined, they put additional hours and make up for experience and perform well at clients. They get a decent 65K to start with from the consulting company and their h1bs are filed well before the cap ends.
Can you please share with me PM some of these companies as I am lookin for a h1b sponsorer for someone i know who has done masters here.... and is fresher... not that he wants to put fake.... he is ready to get a entry level salary and state that he graduated out of school and is a fresher..... just that he wants someone to do his h1b...
more...
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eilsoe
03-08 07:40 AM
ya3, the deadline is thursday ;)
May 10th.
May 10th.
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senthil1
06-12 10:03 PM
Yes that is true. Impact for US companies are minimal and in fact good for US companies and more disadvantage for Indian companies. Mainly those who are running just by H1b persons will have tough time. Actually many small US consulting companies went out of business because they were not able to compete with Indian companies because of H1B.
dont count on the restrictions being removed, the restrictions are the trade off to the major increase that is goin to take place for the h1b's , the biggie US companys are not gonna get affected by them, its only the indian IT and the desi bodyshoppers, so they wil support it as long as they get the h1b's.
dont count on the restrictions being removed, the restrictions are the trade off to the major increase that is goin to take place for the h1b's , the biggie US companys are not gonna get affected by them, its only the indian IT and the desi bodyshoppers, so they wil support it as long as they get the h1b's.
more...
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laborchic
09-19 10:47 AM
The reason there were so many placards was - we were expecting atleast 10000 people to show up and with the kind of poor response we got, we were expecting atleast 5000 and thats why there was 700 banners ordered.
If we had the magic figure 10000, the impact could have been marvellous. The banner count would have been appropriate
With 1500 to 2000 - every individual had a banner or a placard or a flag.
Mark's speech was hillarious - but had very strong messages - THESE ARE THINGS THAT NEED SPECIAL SKILLS - AND MARK PULLED IT THROUGH EXTREMELY WELL. Mark is a pround member of the Tri State Chapter and his contributions towards the cause are amazing
Robert Sun (LIA) - was good. Well he was praising Indians and CHinese. Nothing wrong - but yes can be more comprehensive in nature.
We had people from all nationalities - and a lot of people seem to be silent supporters of IV - very passionate about this organization.
Jay was at his best - He took on Lou Dobbs - Which was the best part.
The only lesson I would say that we must learn is - low numbers - YES. The turnout should have been atleast 10000 - though 2000 is good. Just proves how selfish those free riders are who can let down your own community who are helping you.
I was part of the rally... I am proud of IV and everyone who attended it..WHAT tri-state chapter are you talking about ?? How many people are enrolled in it and how many showed up for the rally???
If we had the magic figure 10000, the impact could have been marvellous. The banner count would have been appropriate
With 1500 to 2000 - every individual had a banner or a placard or a flag.
Mark's speech was hillarious - but had very strong messages - THESE ARE THINGS THAT NEED SPECIAL SKILLS - AND MARK PULLED IT THROUGH EXTREMELY WELL. Mark is a pround member of the Tri State Chapter and his contributions towards the cause are amazing
Robert Sun (LIA) - was good. Well he was praising Indians and CHinese. Nothing wrong - but yes can be more comprehensive in nature.
We had people from all nationalities - and a lot of people seem to be silent supporters of IV - very passionate about this organization.
Jay was at his best - He took on Lou Dobbs - Which was the best part.
The only lesson I would say that we must learn is - low numbers - YES. The turnout should have been atleast 10000 - though 2000 is good. Just proves how selfish those free riders are who can let down your own community who are helping you.
I was part of the rally... I am proud of IV and everyone who attended it..WHAT tri-state chapter are you talking about ?? How many people are enrolled in it and how many showed up for the rally???
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varshadas
02-05 05:46 PM
Hello All,
Congressman Ferguson has agreed to meet at 4:30pm this Friday, February 9th, 2007 in his district office. The address is:
45 Mountain Blvd.
Building D, Suite 1
Warren, NJ 07059
Let me know who all can make it. I think I can accomodate 3 more. I have to check the fax I sent him.
Thanks,
Varsha
Congressman Ferguson has agreed to meet at 4:30pm this Friday, February 9th, 2007 in his district office. The address is:
45 Mountain Blvd.
Building D, Suite 1
Warren, NJ 07059
Let me know who all can make it. I think I can accomodate 3 more. I have to check the fax I sent him.
Thanks,
Varsha
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mundada
09-28 02:59 PM
Jaime - you nailed it. People must concentrate on what they have to do. I started this thread for gettting a general perspective, because I seen articles about Blue Card and my dad also told me to look into it.
This thread has been very informative. Let folks keep blogging their prespectives
Good point Jaime... currency strengthening has nothing to do with general career opportunities in that particular country. In short term it is because of interest rate differentials and in long run it is because of multiple factors primarily being inflation and trade balance. Therefore moving to Europe or India (best performing Asian currency this year) because of appreciating local currency does not mean anything as far as your career opportunities are concerned.
By the time you are settled in Europe (5-10 years), the currency rates may reverse because US would have started exporting more goods to Europe as US goods would be getting cheaper. Euro and dollar zones are mature market based currencies so we can say something about them.
However, same is not true for India largely because of intervention of RBI. However, look at Japanese currency, over 3 decades it has risen from 600 yen to 115 yen even after intervention of Japanese central bank. This is because of strength of exports from Japan. So it is possible that INR may end up somewhere near Rs. 8-15 if we go by PPP or somewhere in between depending upon trade balance and inflation. However recent reports suggest that Rs. 32-35 is breaking point and Indian software exports will become costlier than simply offshoring to Arkansas or Illinois. Therefore, most likely Indian govt. will step in and avoid dollar free fall against rupee.
This thread has been very informative. Let folks keep blogging their prespectives
Good point Jaime... currency strengthening has nothing to do with general career opportunities in that particular country. In short term it is because of interest rate differentials and in long run it is because of multiple factors primarily being inflation and trade balance. Therefore moving to Europe or India (best performing Asian currency this year) because of appreciating local currency does not mean anything as far as your career opportunities are concerned.
By the time you are settled in Europe (5-10 years), the currency rates may reverse because US would have started exporting more goods to Europe as US goods would be getting cheaper. Euro and dollar zones are mature market based currencies so we can say something about them.
However, same is not true for India largely because of intervention of RBI. However, look at Japanese currency, over 3 decades it has risen from 600 yen to 115 yen even after intervention of Japanese central bank. This is because of strength of exports from Japan. So it is possible that INR may end up somewhere near Rs. 8-15 if we go by PPP or somewhere in between depending upon trade balance and inflation. However recent reports suggest that Rs. 32-35 is breaking point and Indian software exports will become costlier than simply offshoring to Arkansas or Illinois. Therefore, most likely Indian govt. will step in and avoid dollar free fall against rupee.
akshaya10001
07-13 03:19 PM
Few points to add......
Assuming EB1, EB2, EB3 & EB4 demand is same as 2009. This year spill over will be at least extra 7000 visa's.
There are 10,000 overflow from 2009 FB Visa's, assuming that ~30% goes to EB3 remaining 70% goes to EB1, EB2, EB3 and EB4. Which all overflow in to EB2 which eventually allocated to EB2 India & China.
EB2 India assured of additional 6000 visa's (85% of spill over) compared to last year.
The reasons we don't see recession effect on spillover, actually spill over numbers are down for last 2 years are
1> EB1, EB2, EB3 & 4 ROW was always current but due to uscis in-efficiency there were many pending cases in the system which got cleared in 2009.
2> ROW EB3 porting to EB2.
Now 1st point got cleared in 2009 itself, which was indicated by August 2009 inventory list this was 1st inventory report to bring transparency. uscis want to look good so they cleared in efficiencies in 485 due to this spillover numbers in 2009 are less than 2008.
second point is the only negative for spill over numbers.
Clearly there are stats & messages that about 30% less PERM cases filed in 2009 & 2010, so consumption demand in ROW category will be going down.
So we are going to see good thing due to spill over in the current Quarter, we can guess, speculate but we need to wait till next inventory report what was this effect is, most likely this trend will continue at least next year. It is clear that in next 6 months we won't see great expansion of economy & even ROW demand picks up in mid 2011 they will come to visa numbers stage after Sep �2011.
HOPE we are going to have GREAT SPILL OVER DAYS DURING NEXT 15 months; the people who won't get cleared during this time frame have to be helped by reforms only.
Assuming EB1, EB2, EB3 & EB4 demand is same as 2009. This year spill over will be at least extra 7000 visa's.
There are 10,000 overflow from 2009 FB Visa's, assuming that ~30% goes to EB3 remaining 70% goes to EB1, EB2, EB3 and EB4. Which all overflow in to EB2 which eventually allocated to EB2 India & China.
EB2 India assured of additional 6000 visa's (85% of spill over) compared to last year.
The reasons we don't see recession effect on spillover, actually spill over numbers are down for last 2 years are
1> EB1, EB2, EB3 & 4 ROW was always current but due to uscis in-efficiency there were many pending cases in the system which got cleared in 2009.
2> ROW EB3 porting to EB2.
Now 1st point got cleared in 2009 itself, which was indicated by August 2009 inventory list this was 1st inventory report to bring transparency. uscis want to look good so they cleared in efficiencies in 485 due to this spillover numbers in 2009 are less than 2008.
second point is the only negative for spill over numbers.
Clearly there are stats & messages that about 30% less PERM cases filed in 2009 & 2010, so consumption demand in ROW category will be going down.
So we are going to see good thing due to spill over in the current Quarter, we can guess, speculate but we need to wait till next inventory report what was this effect is, most likely this trend will continue at least next year. It is clear that in next 6 months we won't see great expansion of economy & even ROW demand picks up in mid 2011 they will come to visa numbers stage after Sep �2011.
HOPE we are going to have GREAT SPILL OVER DAYS DURING NEXT 15 months; the people who won't get cleared during this time frame have to be helped by reforms only.
vbkris77
04-10 12:28 PM
What you said is absolutely true. EB1 Last year and the year before saw lot more approvals than usual. My reasoning is that even though EB1 was current for all along, they never really approved I140s to give them GC. So In the overall clearing of I140s, CIS cleared lot more EB1 cases and became approved during last 2 years. If you look at the I140 completion in the dash board, it will be very much clear that the completions came down to 4 digits for each month from 5 digits. Receipts continued to be less than 5K per month.
This year, we may see a big dip in EB1 cases and larger EB2 spillover. EB4 spillover is ruled out after this bulletin.
Here are the details for last year and years before:
(Thanks to user "sangiano" on : link: FY2009 Visa Data, Spillover to EB2 - Will it be Similar FY2010 (http://www..com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/498198953/fy2009-visa-data-spillover-to-eb2-will-it-be-similar-fy2010))
Employment Visas 2009
Total Employment Visas for FY2009 = 141,020
Theoretical values without spillover
EB1 28.6% = 40,332
EB2 28.6% = 40,332
EB3 28.6% = 40,332
EB4 7.1% = 10,012
EB5 7.1% = 10,012
Actual values with spillover
EB1 40,978 = 29.1% received c.650 spillup visa used
EB2 46,034 = 32.6% received c.5,700 spillover visas used
EB3 39,791 = 28.2% received c.550 less visas than quota
EB4 9,999 = 7.1% Zero spillup visas to give
EB5 4,218 = 3.0% c. 5,800 spillup visas to give
What is noteworthy is the fact that spillup/spillover visas were only available from EB5.
In addition, EB1 actually consumed spillup visas and did not contribute any spillover visas as a result.
This implies that the total spillover visas available to the 7% limited countries was only c.7,500. Since 5,800 came from EB5, less 650 used by EB1, this gives a subtotal of 5,150. In turn, this implies that there were only 7,500 - 5,150 = 2,350 as spillover from EB2-ROW. In the worst case the difference is entirely from EB5.
I think it gives food for thought and shows the difficulty of trying to second guess visa consumption in Categories that are always current. I accept it might be easier to get a handle on non-NIW EB2 because of the PERM data available for ROW.
I'm not sure why FY2010 would be much different, at least for EB1 spillover.
Additional notes from subsequent posts:
There was significant spillover in FY2007 because (based on 154,497 total EB visas) :
EB1 only used 26,806 out of a possible 44,186 available visas.
EB4 only used 4,794 out of a possible 10,969 available visas.
EB5 only used 793 out of a possible 10,969 available visas.
That gives a potential spillover of 33,731 visas to categories below EB1. In FY2007 that mostly went vertically to EB3.
There was significant spillover in FY2008 because (based on 162,949 total EB visas) :
EB1 only used 36,590 out of a possible 46,603 available visas.
EB4 only used 7,648 out of a possible 11,569 available visas.
EB5 only used 1,443 out of a possible 11,569 available visas.
That gives a potential spillover of 24,060 visas to categories below EB1. In FY2008 that all went to EB2.
The amount *was* smaller in FY2009 because (based on 141,020 total EB visas)
EB1 used 40,978 which was more than the available visas of 40,332 (i.e. it used some of the spillup from EB4/EB5).
EB4 used 9,999 out of a possible 10,012 available visas. (i.e it pretty much maxed out)
EB5 only used 4,218 out of a possible 10,012 available visas. (i.e. much higher than previous years)
That gives a potential spillover to EB2 of 5,161 visas, which is substantially lower than previous years.
This is all his analysis based entirely on historic data (no predictions here; just what has already happened). All credit of analysis goes to him. I never crunched a single number; I am just an "integrater" of the info. Please also note that now we have found out that the word "spillover" should actually be "fall across and down"
Hope this was the info you were asking for.
This year, we may see a big dip in EB1 cases and larger EB2 spillover. EB4 spillover is ruled out after this bulletin.
Here are the details for last year and years before:
(Thanks to user "sangiano" on : link: FY2009 Visa Data, Spillover to EB2 - Will it be Similar FY2010 (http://www..com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/498198953/fy2009-visa-data-spillover-to-eb2-will-it-be-similar-fy2010))
Employment Visas 2009
Total Employment Visas for FY2009 = 141,020
Theoretical values without spillover
EB1 28.6% = 40,332
EB2 28.6% = 40,332
EB3 28.6% = 40,332
EB4 7.1% = 10,012
EB5 7.1% = 10,012
Actual values with spillover
EB1 40,978 = 29.1% received c.650 spillup visa used
EB2 46,034 = 32.6% received c.5,700 spillover visas used
EB3 39,791 = 28.2% received c.550 less visas than quota
EB4 9,999 = 7.1% Zero spillup visas to give
EB5 4,218 = 3.0% c. 5,800 spillup visas to give
What is noteworthy is the fact that spillup/spillover visas were only available from EB5.
In addition, EB1 actually consumed spillup visas and did not contribute any spillover visas as a result.
This implies that the total spillover visas available to the 7% limited countries was only c.7,500. Since 5,800 came from EB5, less 650 used by EB1, this gives a subtotal of 5,150. In turn, this implies that there were only 7,500 - 5,150 = 2,350 as spillover from EB2-ROW. In the worst case the difference is entirely from EB5.
I think it gives food for thought and shows the difficulty of trying to second guess visa consumption in Categories that are always current. I accept it might be easier to get a handle on non-NIW EB2 because of the PERM data available for ROW.
I'm not sure why FY2010 would be much different, at least for EB1 spillover.
Additional notes from subsequent posts:
There was significant spillover in FY2007 because (based on 154,497 total EB visas) :
EB1 only used 26,806 out of a possible 44,186 available visas.
EB4 only used 4,794 out of a possible 10,969 available visas.
EB5 only used 793 out of a possible 10,969 available visas.
That gives a potential spillover of 33,731 visas to categories below EB1. In FY2007 that mostly went vertically to EB3.
There was significant spillover in FY2008 because (based on 162,949 total EB visas) :
EB1 only used 36,590 out of a possible 46,603 available visas.
EB4 only used 7,648 out of a possible 11,569 available visas.
EB5 only used 1,443 out of a possible 11,569 available visas.
That gives a potential spillover of 24,060 visas to categories below EB1. In FY2008 that all went to EB2.
The amount *was* smaller in FY2009 because (based on 141,020 total EB visas)
EB1 used 40,978 which was more than the available visas of 40,332 (i.e. it used some of the spillup from EB4/EB5).
EB4 used 9,999 out of a possible 10,012 available visas. (i.e it pretty much maxed out)
EB5 only used 4,218 out of a possible 10,012 available visas. (i.e. much higher than previous years)
That gives a potential spillover to EB2 of 5,161 visas, which is substantially lower than previous years.
This is all his analysis based entirely on historic data (no predictions here; just what has already happened). All credit of analysis goes to him. I never crunched a single number; I am just an "integrater" of the info. Please also note that now we have found out that the word "spillover" should actually be "fall across and down"
Hope this was the info you were asking for.
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